AD ALTA
JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH
ANALYSIS OF THE CONSUMPTION ON THE GOODS AND SERVICES MARKET IN THE
CYBERNETIC MODEL OF THE 15 OLDER EU MEMBER STATES
a
PAVEL ROUSEK,
b
MAREK VOCHOZKA,
c
MARIANNA
PSÁRSKA
Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice,
School of Expertness and Valuation, Okružní 517/10, 37001
České Budějovice, Czech Republic
email:
a
rousek@mail.vstecb.cz,
b
vochozka@mail.vstecb.cz,
c
psarska@mail.vstecb.cz
Abstract: The paper analyses the consumption on the goods and services market in the
cybernetic model of the EU-15 (the older member states of the European Union). The
theoretical basis is given by the consumption function in the short-term, the
macroeconomic multiplier of the two-sector economy and the cybernetic model with
the goods and services market. All the above-mentioned theory is applied to the real
conditions of the 15 selected countries, which are Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal,
Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom. A case study is shown on the example of
Austria, whose consumption parameters are most similar to the median.
Keywords: Consumption Function; Macroeconomic Multiplier; Cybernetic Model.
1 Introduction
The real economy is a complex and comprehensive system with
many exogenous inputs, exogenous outputs, and internal links. It
needs to be simplified.
The macroeconomic model is the simplification on a
macroscopic level. It has a limited count of inputs, outputs, and
links. Autonomous components of consumption, investment,
government purchases, and net exports are considered as the
inputs to this model. Product is considered as the output of this
model.
The macroeconomic model of the two-sector economy is an even
greater simplification. In this case, the inputs are autonomous
consumption and a mix of other non-consumption autonomous
inputs. The output is the gross domestic product (GDP).
2 Data and Methods
2.1 Consumption in the Short-Term
This paper will be based on a production function that is very
well researched in the literature (Keynes 1936, Keynes 1937,
Friedman 1957). The Keynesian theory defines consumption
function as a consumption and product relationship as shown in
Formula (1).
(1)
Where C is the total consumption
C0
autonomous consumption
mpc×Y
induced consumption
mpc
marginal propensity to consume
Y
product (GDP)
2.2 Macroeconomic Multiplier of the Two-Sector Economy
Relationships in the system are interconnected. Increased
autonomous consumption (C0) is part of the total consumption
(C) that also increases. The total consumption (C) is part of the
product (Y) that also increases. The product (Y) is part of the
induced consumption (mpc×Y) that also increases. The induced
consumption (mpc×Y) is part of the total consumption (C) that
also increases. This closes the circle and repeats one impulse
infinitely. This process is called the Keynesian multiplication
process.
The final impact on output is determined by the strength of
feedback or the value of the marginal propensity to consume
(mpc). “The Keynesian multiplier process is the economist’s
paradigmatic positive feedback loop, in which an initial
departure from full-employment equilibrium cumulates instead
of being corrected” (Howitt 2006).
The mathematical representation of the Keynesian multiplication
process is shown in Formula (2).
(2)
Where Y is the product (GDP)
C0
autonomous consumption
A0
autonomous non-consumption inputs
mpc
marginal propensity to consume
2.3 Cybernetic Model with the Goods and Services Market
Thy cybernetic model with the goods and services market has
the following parameters:
•
Inputs
o
Autonomous consumption (C0)
o
Autonomous non-consumption inputs (A0)
•
Internal feedback
o
Marginal propensity to consume (mpc)
•
Output
o
Product (Y)
The graphical explanation of the above is shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1. Cybernetic Model of a Static Economy with the Goods
and Services Market.
C
0
A
0
Y
AD
∆C
1
mpc
Firms
+
+
Households
Source: Máče, Rousek 2013
3 Results and Discussion
3.1 Consumption in the Older EU Member States
The consumption function is determined by two variable
parameters: autonomous consumption (C0) and marginal
propensity to consume (mpc). In view of the state of these two
variables, several possible forms of consumption function can
theoretically be defined. Autonomous consumption can be
positive or negative.
Marginal propensity to consume may fall between -
∞ and 0;
from 0 to 1; or from 1 to ∞. By combining the above, there are
six possible forms of the consumption function. Only three of
these are actually achieved on the data of older EU Member
States.
The consumption and product data used for modelling are shown
in Table 1.
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